China’s huge domestic market and its cautious approach to integration with the global financial system may have helped cushion the impact of the continuing financial tsunami, but China’s economy is in no way immune to this global challenge. China’s unemployment rate is expected to reach 4.6% by the end of this year, the worst figure since 1980. Even the most optimistic estimate predicts that at least 20 million of the 130 million migrant workers will lose their urban jobs in 2009. In light of such pent-up frustration, it may be reasonable to ponder the option of expanding avenues for public participation in governance, as this may help serve as a safety valve for releasing social tension. Charter 08, a petition released on December 10, 2008, represents the latest effort to articulate this theory. The document is a deliberate attempt to imitate the founding of the Charter 77 movement in Czechoslovakia and it calls for reforms enshrining the universal values of freedom, human rights, equality, republicanism, democracy, and constitutional rule. Unsurprisingly, the Chinese government has responded with coercive measures and a number of signers have been interrogated and held in police custody.

Political reforms as safety valve?

It may be unfair to say that the Chinese government has been totally indifferent to popular demands for political reform, but for the Party leadership under Hu Jintao, 2009 is hardly an ideal year for audacious change in political institutions. It is the twentieth anniversary of the 1989 Tiananmen Incident and the fiftieth anniversary of the Liberation of Tibet. As the global economic crisis continues, it will also be a year of social and economic dislocations. For Party leaders, “social harmony,” a synonym for maintenance of the status quo and suspension of diversity, is the priority. Contrary to the ideas of liberals who see political freedom and democracy as the solution to conflicts and tension, the Party regards economic stabilization as a more reliable option for preserving order.

Economic stability as the prime concern

Central to the response to the trying time ahead is a 4-trillion-yuan ($586 billion) plan to boost the national economy and a drastic increase in public expenditure. Generous support has been bestowed upon sectors directly related to people’s livelihood. These include, for examples:

-18% increase in social security spending

-850 billion yuan will be allocated for medical and healthcare reforms over the next three years

For the Chinese leaders and the CCP, economic growth is the proven way to placate the people and preserve the Party’s legitimacy. Political reforms that may help strengthen the administrative competence of the Chinese bureaucracy or contribute to a more business-friendly environment are deemed as relevant and thus welcomed by the regime. Political liberalization, as advocated by vocal intellectuals and dissidents in exile, is not. Realistically, an opening for political reforms will only emerge when the Party feels comfortable with its power position and is confident of its ability to control the pace and direction of those reforms. The turbulence and adversity inherent in the current global financial meltdown hardly seem conducive to these sentiments.

For the full version of this article, please visit: http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2009/04_china_yep.aspx

新力量網絡、明報世紀版與天地圖書有限公司將合辦〈中國．香港．六十年〉系列講座，邀請本港學者、各界持份者，從政治、經濟、民生、文化、法制到環保等方面作出反思、總結經驗，一起為中國及香港未來發展尋求出路。第一場講座將於2009年5月16日在天地圖書公司灣仔門市部舉行，時間為下午3時至5時。

SynergyNet, Ming Pao and Cosmos books Ltd. will co-host a series of forums to mark the 60th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. These forums will discuss the different aspects of changes (including political, economic, social, cultural, legal, etc) in China in the past few decades, and also reflect the future development of both the Mainland and Hong Kong. The first forum will be held on 16th May 2009 at Retail Centre of Comos Book in Wan Chai.

香港民主促進會、新力量網絡、民主動力、思匯、香港民主發展網絡、Roundtable、民主發展資源中心合辦「一國兩制與香港的管治力量」論壇，分析及評論中聯辦研究部主任曹二寶提出的「兩支管治隊伍」的說法。

Hong Kong Democratic Foundation, SynergyNet, Power for Democracy, Democracy Depot, Hong Kong Democratic Development Network, Civic Exchange and The Roundtable co-hosted a public forum to discuss the notion of “two governing teams” as advocated by Cao Er-bao in his article.

經濟與政治息息相關，在金融海嘯席捲全球的情況下，經濟下滑會對香港和中國的政治產生甚麼影響？新力量網絡與NDI（全國國際事務民主學會）於2009年5月8日合辦「金融海嘯下香港與中國的政治發展論壇」，邀請講者就有關題目作出評論。

SynergyNet and NDI co-hosted a public forum on the 8th May 2009. It aimed to discuss how the global economic downturn has affected the political development in China and Hong Kong.

大學教育關注組、新力量網絡、公共專業聯盟、香港城市大學教職員協會及公民黨合辦「沒有平反的『平反』── 從教院事件看學術自由」論壇，內容包括從法律觀點界定何謂學術自由，以及討論高官對學術自由的行為規範。

Staff Association of City University of Hong Kong, University Education Concern Group, SynergyNet, The Professional Commons and Civic Party jointly organized a public forum "Looking at Academic Freedom through the HKIEd Incident". The discussion covered the legal perspective of academic freedom and the regulations on the behavioral aspects in academic freedom as adopted by the senior government officials.